Stochastic Modeling for Assessing Agricultural Supply Chain Flexibility: A Case Study of Cassava in Thailand

Pareeya Siriwatthanaphan and Sarawut Jansuwan.
Thai Journal of Operations Research.  Vol 5, No 1 (2017)

The logistics and supply chain management for the agricultural supply chain in Thailand has recently been more emphasized by both the private and public sectors. The efficient agricultural logistics network could provide better product shipment in support of the policy “from farm (farmers) to forks (midstream or downstream producers or consumers).” The performance indicators usually consider the dimensions of cost, lead time, and reliability. Besides these three indicators, the supply chain flexibility is an alternative performance indicator used to assess the ability to accommodate or handle the demand changes in the supply chain system. The objective of this study was to develop a mathematical programming model to assess the supply chain flexibility for the cassava industry, which is a key exported agricultural product of Thailand. In this study, the proposed model adopted the concept of stochastic programming and was divided into two stages. The first stage evaluated the base pattern along the supply chain networks to meet the maximize profit. The second stage assessed the reserve capacity using the base pattern obtained from the
first stage. The models could be used as a suggestion for planning and also for identifying bottlenecks in the supply chain in order to enhance the capacity to serve future supply and demand changes.

Keywords: supply chain flexibility, agricultural supply chain, cassava, stochastic programming

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